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周海茸, 王巍巍, 罗鹏飞, 洪忻. 1990—2019年中国结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势分析[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2024, 51(2): 115-120. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2024.23.0883
引用本文: 周海茸, 王巍巍, 罗鹏飞, 洪忻. 1990—2019年中国结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势分析[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2024, 51(2): 115-120. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2024.23.0883
ZHOU Hairong, WANG Weiwei, LUO Pengfei, HONG Xin. Trend of Colorectal Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2019[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2024, 51(2): 115-120. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2024.23.0883
Citation: ZHOU Hairong, WANG Weiwei, LUO Pengfei, HONG Xin. Trend of Colorectal Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2019[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2024, 51(2): 115-120. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2024.23.0883

1990—2019年中国结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势分析

Trend of Colorectal Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2019

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析1990—2019年中国结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势及定量估计影响因素。
    方法 利用2019年全球疾病负担研究结果,分析1990—2019年我国结直肠癌疾病负担以及危险因素归因疾病负担的变化情况,并采用Gupta分解法定量估算人口增长、老龄化、年龄别患病率和疾病严重程度的改变对疾病负担变化的贡献。
    结果 1990—2019年我国结直肠癌标化伤残调整寿命年率(DALY rates)呈上升趋势,2019年DALY值较1990年增长了191.12%,其中34.54%可归因于人口增长、111.36%可归因于人口老龄化、77.56%可归因于年龄别患病率的增加、-32.34%归因于疾病严重程度。牛奶摄入不足位列2019年结直肠癌的首要危险因素,其次是谷物摄入不足和钙摄入不足;11种可改变的危险因素中,高BMI所致标化DALY率较1990年增幅最大(225.15%),年均增长4.14%,纤维素摄入不足所致标化DALY率较1990年降幅最大(-44.23%),年均减少2.00%。
    结论 1990—2019年,我国结直肠癌疾病负担呈上升趋势,人口老龄化是导致结直肠癌疾病负担增长最主要的原因,卫生行政部门应采取相应措施应对老龄化带来的不利影响。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To quantitatively analyze the effects of population aging and other risk factors on the burden of colorectal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.
    Methods The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used to describe the temporal trend of the burden of colorectal cancer. A decomposition method established by Gupta was applied to quantify the burden related to population growth, aging, age-specific prevalence, and disease severity.
    Results The age-standardized disability adjusted life years (DALY) rates of colorectal cancer in China showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2019. The DALY in 2019 increased by 191.12% compared with that in 1990, with 34.54% of the increase attributed to population growth, 111.36% to population aging, and 77.56% to the rise of age-specific prevalence. Meanwhile, -32.54% benefited from the changes in disease severity. Diet low in milk was the primary risk factor for the disease burden of colorectal cancer in China in 2019, followed by diet low in whole grains and calcium. In the last 30 years, the corresponding risk factor of the most rapid increase in China was high BMI with an average annual percentage of change of 4.14%, and the corresponding risk factor of the most rapid decrease in China was diet low in fiber with an average annual percentage of change of -2.00%.
    Conclusion Aging population is mainly responsible for the considerable increase in the burden of colorectal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. The health administrative authorities should take corresponding measures to address the adverse impacts associated with aging.

     

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