1987—2019年哈尔滨市胃癌死亡趋势与去死因期望寿命分析

梁巍; 兰莉; 宋冰冰; 孙惠昕; 张茂祥; 王春莲

doi:10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2023.22.0682

1987—2019年哈尔滨市胃癌死亡趋势与去死因期望寿命分析

Trend on Mortality of Gastric Cancer and Cause-eliminated Life Expectancy from 1987 to 2019 in Harbin

摘要

摘要:
目的分析哈尔滨市居民胃癌死亡特征、变化趋势与去死因期望寿命，为制定胃癌防控策略提供参考。
方法收集1987—2019年哈尔滨市胃癌死亡数据，描述性分析胃癌死亡特征，采用简略期望寿命表、去死因期望寿命表计算期望寿命与胃癌去死因期望寿命，Joinpoint Regression Program 4.2软件计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），评价胃癌死亡率、去死因期望寿命变化趋势。
结果 1987—2019年，胃癌死亡粗率、中标死亡率、世标死亡率、35~64岁截缩死亡率分别为14.3/10万、10.9/10万、10.9/10万、13.5/10万。胃癌中标死亡率以年均2.9%速度逐年下降（95%CI: -4.4%~-1.4%），男、女胃癌中标死亡率均呈下降趋势，男性年均下降3.0%（95%CI: -4.4%~-1.7%），女性年均下降3.1%（95%CI: -5.3%~-0.9%）；世标死亡率同样呈下降趋势。35~64岁截缩死亡率以2.8%速度逐年下降（95%CI: -3.1%~-2.5%）。1987—2019年哈尔滨市居民期望寿命为76.78岁，其中男性为74.41岁，女性为79.33岁，去除胃癌的影响期望寿命可提高0.25岁，男性可提高0.31岁，女性可提高0.18岁。胃癌占全部恶性肿瘤死亡构成比年均下降1.8%（95%CI: -2.0%~-1.7%）。
结论 1987—2019年哈尔滨市胃癌死亡率呈逐年下降趋势，去除胃癌影响，哈尔滨市居民期望寿命可提高0.25岁，应采取有针对性措施加强胃癌的防控。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the mortality characteristics and trends and the cause-eliminated life expectancy of gastric cancer in Harbin City from 1987 to 2019.
Methods Mortality data of residents with gastric cancer from 1987 to 2019 in Harbin was analyzed to describe the mortality characteristics and trends of gastric cancer. Abridged life table and cause-eliminated life table were applied to calculate life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated with Joinpoint 4.2 software to evaluate the trends of mortality and cause-eliminated life expectancy of gastric cancer.
Results From 1987 to 2019, the crude mortality, ASMRC and ASMRW and the truncated rate (35-64) were 14.3/10⁵, 10.9/10⁵, 10.9/10⁵, and 13.5/10⁵, respectively. The ASMRC showed an obvious decreasing trend at an average annual rate of 2.9% from 1987 to 2019 (95%CI: -4.4%--1.4%). Significant decreasing trends were observed for males (AAPC=-3.0%, 95%CI: -4.4%--1.7%) and females (AAPC=-3.1%, 95%CI: -5.3%--0.9%). An obvious decreasing trend in the ASMRW was also observed. The truncated rate (35-64) showed a downward trend (AAPC=-2.8%, 95%CI: -3.1%--2.5%). The average life expectancy of residents from 1987 to 2019 in Harbin were 76.78 years (male: 74.41 years, female: 79.33 years). After eliminating the causes of death of gastric cancer, the life expectancy increased by 0.25 years (male: 0.31 years, female: 0.18 years). Significant decreasing trends were found in the proportion of gastric cancer in all malignant cancer cases (AAPC=-0.18%, 95%CI: -2.0%--1.7%).
Conclusion The mortality of gastric cancer decreases gradually from 1987 to 2019 in Harbin. After eliminating the causes of death of gastric cancer, the life expectancy increases by 0.25 years. Therefore, prevention and control should be strengthened.

HTML全文

参考文献(13)

施引文献

资源附件(0)