江苏省昆山市2006—2015年肺癌发病趋势分析

胡文斌; 秦威; 张婷; 仝岚; 邱和泉; 金亦徐; 周杰; 史建国; 罗晓明

doi:10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2017.17.0873

江苏省昆山市2006—2015年肺癌发病趋势分析

Trend of Lung Cancer Incidence in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, 2006-2015

摘要

摘要:
目的分析昆山市2006—2015年肺癌发病趋势并预测未来发病趋势。
方法肺癌病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记报告系统；使用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化发病率（中标率）。使用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change, APC）评价肺癌发病率在年份之间的变化趋势。用时间趋势与自回归模型预测2016—2020年肺癌发病率。
结果肺癌中标率在总人群（APC=3.1%, 95%CI: 2.0%~4.2%）、男性人群（APC=1.9%, 95%CI: 0.9%~2.9%）和女性人群（APC=6.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%~8.5%）中均明显上升。≥70岁年龄组中男性（APC=1.7%, 95%CI: -0.1%~3.5%）和女性人群（APC=2.0%, 95%CI: -1.8%~5.8%）肺癌年龄标化发病率无明显变化。而30~70岁年龄组中男性（APC=2.0%, 95%CI: 0.8%~3.2%）和女性人群（APC=8.6%, 95%CI: 5.4%~11.8%）肺癌年龄标化发病率持续上升。时间序列预测结果提示未来年份（2016—2020年）男性和女性人群中肺癌粗发病率均持续上升。
结论昆山市肺癌30~70岁人群发病率在过去10年急剧上升，未来年份将继续上升；肺癌防治相关措施亟需开展，特别是30~70岁人群。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the incidence rate of lung cancer from 2006 to 2015 in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province and predict the incidence trend.
Methods Lung cancer cases were derived from cancer registry system of Kunshan. The Fifth National Population Census in 2000 was used to calculate age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) by gender. Annual percentage changes (APC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to examine the temporal trend and the stepwise autoregressive method of time series model was used to predict the incidence rate from 2016 to 2020.
Results Lung cancer ASR increased from 31.55/10⁵ in 2006 to 41.40/10⁵ in 2015(APC=3.1%, 95%CI: 2.0%-4.2%), meanwhile ASR increased in male (APC=1.9%, 95%CI: 0.9%-2.9%) and female (APC=6.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%-8.5%). Moreover, lung cancer ASR were increasing in male (APC=2.0%, 95%CI: 0.8%-3.2%) and female (APC=8.6%, 95%CI: 5.4%-11.8%) in the population aged 30-70 years, but no significant change was observed in male (APC=1.7%, 95%CI: -0.1%-3.5%) or female (APC=2.0%, 95%CI: -1.8%-5.8%) in the population aged above 70 years. The stepwise autoregressive method of time series model demonstrated that the crude incidence of lung cancer showed upward trend in 2016-2020, irrespective of male or female.
Conclusion Lung cancer incidence in Kunshan has risen sharply over the past 10 years and will continue to rise in the following years. Cancer control measures are urgently needed, especially in the population aged 30-70 years.

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