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胡文斌, 张婷, 史建国, 秦威. 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年结直肠癌死亡趋势分析[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2016, 43(7): 623-628. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2016.07.016
引用本文: 胡文斌, 张婷, 史建国, 秦威. 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年结直肠癌死亡趋势分析[J]. 肿瘤防治研究, 2016, 43(7): 623-628. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2016.07.016
HU Wenbin, ZHANG Ting, SHI Jianguo, QIN Wei. Mortality Trend of Colorectal Cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, 1981-2014[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2016, 43(7): 623-628. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2016.07.016
Citation: HU Wenbin, ZHANG Ting, SHI Jianguo, QIN Wei. Mortality Trend of Colorectal Cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, 1981-2014[J]. Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment, 2016, 43(7): 623-628. DOI: 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2016.07.016

江苏省昆山市1981-2014年结直肠癌死亡趋势分析

Mortality Trend of Colorectal Cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, 1981-2014

  • 摘要:
    目的 探究江苏省昆山市1981—2014年结直肠癌死亡率变化趋势。
    方法 查询来源于死因监测的历年结直肠癌死亡病例,计算分性别-年龄组粗死亡率与年龄标化率,使用平均年度变化百分比(annual percentage change, APC)及其95%CI评价结直肠癌死亡率等在年份之间变化趋势。中国2000年人口结构用于计算年龄标化率;计算0~74岁累积死亡率(%)评价因直肠癌死亡的风险。
    结果 昆山市1981—2014年间结直肠癌死亡数逐年增加(APC=1.4%, 95%CI: 1.0%~1.8%);结直肠癌0~74岁累积死亡率由1981年的1.94%下降到2014年的0.72%(APC=-2.7%,95%CI: -3.3%~-2.1%)。全人群中结直肠癌年龄标化死亡率由1981年的16.87/10万下降到2014年的6.50/10万(APC=-2.4%, 95%CI: -2.9%~-1.9%),男性(APC=-2.2%, 95%CI: -2.8%~-1.6%)和女性(APC=-2.7%, 95%CI: -3.4%~-2.0%)人群中也呈现明显下降趋势。
    结论 虽然昆山市过去30年高水平结直肠癌死亡率呈现持续下降趋势,但因结直肠癌死亡的例数逐年增加,仍旧是威胁居民健康的主要恶性肿瘤。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the mortality trend of colorectal cancer in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, 1981-2014.
    Methods Colorectal cancer mortality was derived from vital registration system. Annual percentage changes (APC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to examine the temporal trend of colorectal cancer crude rates and age standardized rate (ASR) according to sex. The Chinese population in 2000 was used for age-standardized rates. The risk of dying of colorectal cancer before 75 years old was calculated and presented as cumulative mortality.
    Results Colorectal cancer death cases were significantly increased from 1981 to 2014 in Kunshan(APC=1.4%, 95%CI: 1.0%-1.8%); cumulative mortality of 0-74 years old was declined significantly from 1.96% in 1981 to 0.74% in 2014 (APC=-2.7%, 95%CI: -3.3%--2.1%). Whereas, the age standardized mortality of colorectal cancer in both gender was decreased significantly from 16.87 per 100,000 person years in 1981 to 6.50 per 100,000 person years (APC=-2.4%, 95%CI: -2.9%--1.9%), meanwhile, in male (APC=-2.2%, 95%CI: -2.8%--1.6%) and female (APC=-2.7%, 95%CI: -3.4%--2.0%).
    Conclusion Colorectal cancer mortality has declined in Kunshan over the past 30 years, but the increasing number of colorectal cancer death cases is still a major threat to the health burden.

     

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